Opening cash position
Every forecast starts from a verified bank and cash position, reconciled to your accounting records.
Cash Flow Forecasting · London & UK
Cash Flow Forecasting for Growing UK Businesses
A cash flow forecast shows when cash is expected to enter and leave the business, and where pressure could arise — so decisions can be taken earlier, with more options still available.
We build practical 13-week and rolling cash flow forecasts based on your actual receipts, payments, payroll, tax dates and commitments. Every assumption is explained clearly, along with the actions the forecast suggests, so the model is something you can use rather than a file you file away.
Cash flow forecasting is provided by Singletree Accountants Ltd for businesses in London and across the United Kingdom.
- 13-week and rolling forecasts
- Assumptions explained in plain English
- Scenario testing before decisions
- London and UK-wide
Profit and cash are not the same
See cash pressure before it becomes urgent.
Profit is recognised under accounting rules when income is earned and costs are incurred. Cash moves when money is actually received or paid. The gap between those two events is where most cash pressure is created, and it is why a profitable month and a difficult cash month can happen at the same time. The two questions are examined differently: profitability and margin analysis looks at the commercial contribution earned, while cash-flow forecasting looks at timing and liquidity.
Customer payment timing is usually the largest factor. A single significant invoice settled two weeks later than expected can change the position for the whole month. Stock purchases and supplier commitments consume cash before the related sales are made, and payroll and tax payments fall on specific dates regardless of how trading is going.
Growth adds to this. Recruitment, additional stock, new premises and equipment usually require cash before the returns arrive. A forecast brings all of these together on a single timeline, so timing pressure is identified early enough to act on — by adjusting collections, rescheduling a purchase, agreeing terms or arranging funding in advance. Where the underlying plan itself needs to be revisited, our budgeting and financial forecasting service sets the expected income, costs and profitability that the cash timeline is built from.
What our cash flow forecasting service includes
A forecast is only as useful as the detail behind it. We build the model from the components that actually move your bank balance.
Expected customer receipts
Invoiced debtors, expected new sales and realistic collection timing based on how your customers actually pay.
Supplier and operating payments
Supplier terms, recurring overheads and committed spend, timed to the dates they leave the bank.
Payroll
Salaries, pension contributions and planned recruitment, mapped to their specific payment dates.
VAT, PAYE and corporation tax
Tax assumptions positioned on the dates they fall due, rather than spread evenly across the period.
Loan repayments and capital expenditure
Finance repayments, asset purchases and planned investment, including any deposits or staged payments.
- Known exceptional receipts or payments, such as settlements, refunds, grants or one-off contracts
- Base, upside and downside scenarios so the range of likely outcomes is visible
- Working-capital drivers, including debtor days, supplier terms, stock and deposits
- Forecast-versus-actual review, so the accuracy of assumptions improves over time
- Clear commentary and practical next actions rather than a spreadsheet handed over without explanation
The appropriate model depends on the business, the information available and the decisions being considered. We agree the scope with you before any work begins.
13-week and 12-month cash flow forecasts — what is the difference?
The two horizons answer different questions. Neither is universally better, and many businesses run both: the weekly view to manage cash now, the monthly view to plan the year. Our 13-week cash flow forecast explainer covers the shorter format in more detail.
13-week cash flow forecast
- Week-by-week view of the coming quarter
- Built for short-term cash control
- Detailed timing of individual receipts and payments
- Useful during growth, seasonal pressure or major upcoming commitments
- Normally reviewed more frequently, often weekly
Rolling 12-month cash flow forecast
- Month-by-month view across the year ahead
- Built for medium-term planning
- Shows seasonality, tax, investment and funding requirements
- Useful for planning decisions taken over the course of the year
- Rolled forward as actual information becomes available
An illustrative cash flow forecast
The short example below shows four weeks of a simple weekly forecast.
| Item | Week 1 | Week 2 | Week 3 | Week 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Opening cash | £120,000 | £113,000 | £101,000 | £60,000 |
| Expected receipts | £85,000 | £76,000 | £64,000 | £112,000 |
| Expected payments | −£92,000 | −£88,000 | −£105,000 | −£78,000 |
| Closing cash | £113,000 | £101,000 | £60,000 | £94,000 |
Illustrative figures only. They do not represent a client or forecast future performance.
Across the four weeks the business receives £337,000 and pays out £363,000, and still ends the period with cash in the bank. The point is the path rather than the total: week three closes at £60,000 because a heavier payment week lands before the larger receipt in week four arrives.
That is the value of seeing the timeline in advance. Knowing in week one that week three will be tight leaves room to chase a receipt, agree a payment date or hold back a discretionary purchase. A illustrative restaurant group cash-flow example shows how the same approach applies to a seasonal business.
Test decisions before committing cash
Once a forecast exists, it can be used to test what a decision or a setback would do to the cash position before anything is committed. Common scenarios include:
- A significant customer paying later than expected
- Sales coming in below plan for a period
- Costs increasing, whether through suppliers, energy or wages
- Recruiting one or more employees
- Purchasing additional stock ahead of a busy period
- Capital expenditure on equipment, vehicles or fit-out
- Opening another site or location
- Taking on a substantial contract with front-loaded costs
Scenario testing shows the likely shape of an outcome; it does not guarantee it. A forecast is only ever as reliable as the assumptions behind it, and those assumptions should be revisited whenever circumstances change — a lost contract, a change in payment behaviour, a cost increase or a new opportunity.
Working capital and the timing of cash
Working capital is simply the cash tied up in the day-to-day running of the business. Small changes to any of the following can move the bank balance considerably.
Debtor days
How long customers actually take to pay, rather than the terms stated on the invoice, is often the largest single influence on available cash.
Supplier payment terms
The gap between paying suppliers and being paid by customers determines how much cash the business must fund itself.
Inventory
Stock ties up cash between purchase and sale. Buying earlier or in larger quantities improves availability but reduces cash.
Deposits
Deposits taken from customers bring cash forward; deposits paid to suppliers push it back. Both change the timing profile.
VAT and other tax payments
VAT, PAYE and corporation tax fall due on fixed dates and can be substantial. They belong in the forecast on those dates.
Loan repayments
Capital and interest repayments leave the bank regardless of trading performance and should be modelled explicitly.
Seasonal trading patterns
Quiet periods still carry fixed costs. Forecasting across a full cycle shows where reserves need to be built up in advance.
How the cash flow forecasting process works
The process is straightforward and designed around the decision you are trying to make.
Define the decision and forecast horizon
We start with what the forecast is for — short-term cash control, a planned investment, a funding discussion or general visibility — and agree whether a 13-week, rolling 12-month or combined view is appropriate.
Review available financial information
We review the bank position, accounting records, debtor and creditor ledgers, payroll, tax position and any commitments already made, and identify anything missing.
Agree the principal assumptions
Collection timing, supplier terms, sales expectations, recruitment plans and planned spending are discussed and agreed with you, so the forecast reflects the business as you understand it.
Build, test and explain the forecast
We build the model, test it against base, upside and downside scenarios, and talk you through what it shows, where the pressure points are and which assumptions matter most.
Update and review it where ongoing support is agreed
Where ongoing support is agreed, the forecast is updated with actual results, compared against the earlier view and reviewed with you on a cycle that suits the business.
When cash flow forecasting is especially valuable
Forecasting earns its place whenever the timing of cash is doing more work than the profit figure. That typically includes situations such as these.
- The business is growing rapidly and needs cash ahead of the revenue it will generate
- Trading is seasonal, with quiet periods that still carry fixed costs
- Customers regularly pay later than agreed terms
- Significant VAT, PAYE or corporation tax obligations fall due
- Recruitment decisions are being considered
- Investment in equipment, systems or premises is planned
- New premises or an additional location are under discussion
- A large contract would require substantial spending before payment arrives
- Funding discussions with a lender or investor are approaching
- The business is profitable but regularly feels cash-constrained
Why Singletree
Forecasting connected to the decisions behind the numbers.
A useful forecast is not simply a spreadsheet. It should reflect how the business actually trades, make its assumptions clear and support the decisions being considered.
Built around your business
We use the available accounting records, payment patterns, commitments and management assumptions relevant to your business rather than applying a generic template.
Accounting, tax and advisory considered together
Cash timing can be affected by trading, payroll, tax, borrowing and investment. Bringing these elements together produces a more useful view of the position.
Assumptions explained in plain English
We explain what sits behind the forecast, which assumptions have the greatest effect and what the different scenarios may mean in practice.
One-off or ongoing support
Support can be limited to a particular decision or provided on an ongoing basis, with actual results compared against the forecast on an agreed cycle.
Service led by Ali Tekagac FMAAT, Managing Director of Singletree Accountants Ltd.
How cash flow forecasting fits with your finance function
These services answer different questions and are frequently used together.
Cash flow forecasting
Looks forward to when cash is expected to enter and leave the business.
Management accounts
Explain recent financial performance and the drivers behind results. See our management accounts service.
KPI dashboards
Provide timely visibility over selected financial and operational measures, through our KPI dashboards service.
Fractional CFO support
Adds senior financial leadership, challenge and decision support, through our Fractional CFO support service.
Cash flow forecasting questions
What is a cash flow forecast?
A cash flow forecast sets out when money is expected to enter and leave the business over a chosen period. It starts from the opening cash position, adds expected receipts, deducts expected payments and shows the closing cash position for each week or month, so timing pressure can be seen in advance.
What is a 13-week cash flow forecast?
A 13-week cash flow forecast covers one quarter on a week-by-week basis. The shorter horizon allows individual customer receipts, supplier payments, payroll dates and tax payments to be timed with reasonable accuracy, which makes it well suited to short-term cash control.
What is the difference between a 13-week and a 12-month forecast?
A 13-week forecast is weekly and detailed, and is used to manage cash in the near term. A rolling 12-month forecast is monthly and broader, and is used to plan for seasonality, tax, investment and funding across the year. Neither is better in principle; many businesses use both together.
What is the difference between a cash flow forecast and a budget?
A budget sets out expected income and expenditure and measures planned financial performance. A cash flow forecast deals with timing — when amounts are actually received and paid. A business can be performing in line with its budget and still face cash pressure because of when money moves.
How often should a cash flow forecast be updated?
It depends on the business. Where cash is tight, seasonal or changing quickly, a weekly update is common. More stable businesses often review monthly alongside management accounts. The right frequency is agreed with you rather than applied as a standard rule.
What information is needed to prepare a forecast?
Typically the current bank position, up-to-date accounting records, the debtor and creditor ledgers, payroll costs and dates, VAT, PAYE and corporation tax expectations, loan agreements, planned capital expenditure and any known one-off receipts or payments. We will confirm what is required and identify gaps early.
Can a profitable business still experience cash-flow pressure?
Yes. Profit is recognised when income is earned and costs are incurred, while cash moves when amounts are actually received or paid. Late customer payments, stock purchases, supplier terms, tax dates and investment ahead of growth can therefore create pressure in a business that is trading profitably.
Can a cash flow forecast support funding discussions?
It can. Lenders and investors usually expect to see a forecast that explains the amount required, the timing of the requirement and the assumptions behind it. A forecast supports that conversation, but it does not guarantee that funding will be offered or approved.
Can Singletree provide a one-off forecast or ongoing support?
Both are available. Some businesses need a single forecast to support a particular decision or discussion, while others prefer an ongoing arrangement where the forecast is updated, compared with actual results and reviewed with us on an agreed cycle.
Next step
Know what the next thirteen weeks look like.
If cash feels harder to predict than profit, a forecast is usually the most practical place to start.
A free 30-minute conversation to understand the business, review the information you have today and discuss whether a 13-week or rolling forecast would help.